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Post by Sapphire Capital on Aug 7, 2008 23:12:09 GMT 4
Volatility Forecasting and Liquidity: Evidence from Individual Stocks Peter Brous Seattle University Ufuk Ince University of Washington, Bothell - Business Ivilina Popova Seattle University - Economics & Finance May 23, 2008 Abstract: We find that, on average, for the full sample of stocks comprising the S&P 100 index, theoretically superior implied volatilities are less accurate forecasts than historically based forecasts of future volatilities. However, when we split our sample based on proxies for liquidity, we find that implied volatility forecasts are more accurate than historical volatility forecasts for more liquid stocks, and the inverse is true for the subsample of less liquid stocks. Additionally, we document that among historical measures, Parkinson's extreme value estimator and the adjusted mean absolute deviation are more accurate than the alternative historical estimators. Overall, our results suggest that, for high liquidity stocks, the implied volatility measure is likely to provide a more accurate forecast of future volatility but for low liquidity stocks Parkinson's extreme value estimator and the adjusted mean absolute deviation using historical prices are likely to provide the best forecasts. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1136915_code527664.pdf?abstractid=1136915&mirid=3
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