Post by Sapphire Capital on Feb 14, 2009 5:10:27 GMT 4
House Price Developments in Europe: A Comparison
Alexander W. Hoffmaister
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
Angana Banerji
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Haiyan Shi
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Paul Hilbers
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
September 2008
IMF Working Paper No. 08/211
Abstract:
House prices in Europe have shown diverging trends, and this paper seeks to explain these differences by analyzing three groups of countries: the "fast lane", the average performers, and the slow movers. Price movements in the first two groups are found to be driven mostly by income and trends in user costs, and housing markets in these countries seem relatively more susceptible to adverse developments in fundamentals. Real house price declines among the slow movers are harder to explain, although ample supply, low home ownership, and less complete mortgage markets are likely factors. The impact of macroeconomic, prudential and structural policies on housing markets can be large and should be a factor in policy decisions.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/wp08211.pdf?abstractid=1266544&mirid=1
Alexander W. Hoffmaister
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
Angana Banerji
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Haiyan Shi
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Paul Hilbers
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
September 2008
IMF Working Paper No. 08/211
Abstract:
House prices in Europe have shown diverging trends, and this paper seeks to explain these differences by analyzing three groups of countries: the "fast lane", the average performers, and the slow movers. Price movements in the first two groups are found to be driven mostly by income and trends in user costs, and housing markets in these countries seem relatively more susceptible to adverse developments in fundamentals. Real house price declines among the slow movers are harder to explain, although ample supply, low home ownership, and less complete mortgage markets are likely factors. The impact of macroeconomic, prudential and structural policies on housing markets can be large and should be a factor in policy decisions.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/wp08211.pdf?abstractid=1266544&mirid=1