Post by fireopal on Mar 5, 2009 0:03:40 GMT 4
Learning Options and Binomial Trees
Graeme Guthrie
Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance
February 15, 2009
Abstract:
This paper modifies the standard binomial option pricing approach to real options analysis so that it can incorporate learning options. These options allow a manager to gather information about a potential investment payoff prior to investment occurring. The project's overall volatility will vary in the run-up to investment, being higher when the manager gathers more information about the eventual investment payoff. This paper shows how to construct a recombining tree for the project's anticipated value by making the time steps shorter during periods of high volatility. It describes a simple scheme for calculating the lengths of these steps and the risk-neutral probabilities that are needed to calculate arbitrage-free asset prices.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1343430_code77.pdf?abstractid=1343430&mirid=1
Graeme Guthrie
Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance
February 15, 2009
Abstract:
This paper modifies the standard binomial option pricing approach to real options analysis so that it can incorporate learning options. These options allow a manager to gather information about a potential investment payoff prior to investment occurring. The project's overall volatility will vary in the run-up to investment, being higher when the manager gathers more information about the eventual investment payoff. This paper shows how to construct a recombining tree for the project's anticipated value by making the time steps shorter during periods of high volatility. It describes a simple scheme for calculating the lengths of these steps and the risk-neutral probabilities that are needed to calculate arbitrage-free asset prices.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1343430_code77.pdf?abstractid=1343430&mirid=1