Post by Sapphire Capital on Jun 8, 2012 6:08:26 GMT 4
Techniques for Drawdown and Tail Risk Control
Issam S. Strub
The Cambridge Strategy
May 21, 2012
Abstract: This article introduces three algorithms for trade sizing with the objective of controlling tail risk or maximum drawdown when applied to a trading strategy. The first algorithm relies on historical volatility estimates while the second uses tail risk estimates obtained by applying Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR); the third algorithm also uses Extreme Value Theory applied to the drawdown distribution to compute the Conditional Drawdown at Risk (CDaR). These algorithms are applied to 10 years of daily returns from a trend following strategy trading the EURUSD and NZDMXN currency pairs. In each case, the performance of the algorithms is analysed in detail and compared to the original strategy. The ability of these algorithms in terms of tail risk and drawdown control is evaluated. The techniques presented in the article are readily applicable by investment managers to compute adequate trade size while maintaining a constant level of tail risk or limiting maximum drawdown to a chosen value.
General information only, this is no legal or financial advice or legal opinion and no solicitation or offering of services. Use of posted information should be contingent on your counsel advise on a case by case basis.