Post by Sapphire Capital on Oct 3, 2008 0:48:22 GMT 4
Liquidity and Financial Cycles
Tobias Adrian
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
July 2008
BIS Working Paper No. 256
Abstract:
In a financial system where balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes show up immediately in changes in net worth, and elicit responses from financial intermediaries, who adjust the size of their balance sheets. We document evidence that marked to market leverage is strongly procyclical. Such behaviour has aggregate consequences. Changes in aggregate balance sheets for intermediaries forecast changes in risk appetite in financial markets, as measured by the innovations in the VIX index. Aggregate liquidity can be seen as the rate of change of the aggregate balance sheet of the financial intermediaries.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1165583_code456443.pdf?abstractid=1165583&mirid=1
Tobias Adrian
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
July 2008
BIS Working Paper No. 256
Abstract:
In a financial system where balance sheets are continuously marked to market, asset price changes show up immediately in changes in net worth, and elicit responses from financial intermediaries, who adjust the size of their balance sheets. We document evidence that marked to market leverage is strongly procyclical. Such behaviour has aggregate consequences. Changes in aggregate balance sheets for intermediaries forecast changes in risk appetite in financial markets, as measured by the innovations in the VIX index. Aggregate liquidity can be seen as the rate of change of the aggregate balance sheet of the financial intermediaries.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1165583_code456443.pdf?abstractid=1165583&mirid=1